Protocol not top priority for Northern Ireland voters

24 February, 2023

Most voters in Northern Ireland do not rank the Protocol among their highest policy concerns when compared to other policy issues, a new report by researchers at Queen’s University, has found.

According to opinion polling conducted by LucidTalk on behalf of researchers at Queen’s, the issue of top concern to most respondents (42%) among the six listed is the health service followed by the economy (31%).

The report was carried out by Professor David Phinnemore, Professor Katy Hayward, and Dr Lisa Claire Whitten. They found that unionists (particularly strong unionists) are far more likely to rank the Protocol as a top issue of concern. They also note significant differences by gender. Female voters are four times more likely to rank the Protocol as the issue of least concern (54%) than of most concern (13%). Male respondents are split almost evenly (34% rating the Protocol as of lowest concern, and 31% as of top concern).

The polling was conducted from 3 to 6 February 2023, so before the events of the last ten days anticipating the announcement of a UK-EU deal on the Protocol. The results of the polling are from a weighted sample of 1,498 respondents. This is the seventh in a series of opinion panel polls conducted for Queen’s researchers as part of a three-year Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), funded research project.

Respondents to the poll were asked six sets of questions on attitudes towards Brexit and the Protocol.

Key findings include:

Of the six policy issues listed (healthcare, economy, education, environment, transport, and the Protocol), only 8% of 18-24 year-olds view the Protocol as the issue of most concern and 55% as the issue of least concern.
There are differences among unionists on the issue. 73% of TUV supporters, 55% of DUP supporters and 19% of UUP supporters rank the Protocol as the issue of most concern to them.
In contrast, a clear majority of Alliance (75%) and SDLP (76%) and 65% of Sinn Féin supporters rank the Protocol as the issue of least concern to them of the six listed.
In an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly, a candidate’s position on the Protocol would be important for 82% of respondents.
Almost two thirds of respondents (64%) agree that the Northern Ireland Executive should be fully functioning regardless of what happens with the Protocol. Almost a third (32%) disagree.
In a pattern followed in this polling since mid-2021, a majority (53%) of respondents view the Protocol, with grace periods in effect, as the appropriate means for managing the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland and 52% as overall ‘a good thing for Northern Ireland’
65% think the Protocol is having a negative impact on political stability in Northern Ireland, and 58% think the same about its impact on British-Irish relations.
When it comes to handling Northern Ireland’s interests over the Protocol, the UK government is the most distrusted actor (85% distrust). The Irish Government is distrusted by 46%. The most trusted actor is the business community (56% trust).
Almost three quarters (73%) of respondents agree that the UK and the EU should commit to regular consultation with Northern Ireland stakeholders and political representatives on how the Protocol is implemented.

Speaking about these latest findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen’s said: “Just as the polling confirms how divided opinion in Northern Ireland is on the Protocol, so it shows that for most voters the Protocol is not among their priority concerns. What matters more are concerns regarding the health service, the economy and the cost of living… and the desire to see a return of a functioning executive.”

Co-investigator, Professor Katy Hayward, from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s commented: “This polling is a reminder that any UK-EU deal would be but the high-level starting point for improving people’s experience of the Protocol on the ground in NI. That experience has been largely shaped less by the Protocol’s direct effects than by the political reaction to it. Hence divisions in public opinion on the topic reflect different views on institutions, priorities and actors too. This underscores the significance of the wish of the majority, from across the political spectrum, to see ongoing UK-EU consultation with Northern Ireland on the subject.”

For the full report and findings, please visit: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/TestingTheTemperature7/ and follow on Twitter: @PostBrexitGovNI.