QUEEN’S BUSINESS SCHOOL ECONOMICS SEMINAR SERIES

Friday 23rd February

3pm

"Forced Migration and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Postwar Hungary"

Abstract

We investigate the effects of forced migration on sending economies using the post-WW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that, while towns heavily affected by the expulsions were quite similar to other areas in terms of economic activity and labour market composition before the war, the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity, and an increasing reliance on agricultural labour. We further show long-term negative correlations between forced migration and local trust levels, suggesting persistent differences in the local social fabric. Our analysis reveals that forced migration can cause lasting regional inequalities in sending economies.

Daniel Borbely

QUB/QBS

QBS Conference Hub, Wheston Lecture Theatre 0G.028